Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 13.397156 15.628440 18.059133 20.896280 24.109148 27.626646 31.760906
2024-12-22 9.360054 12.254480 15.719502 20.139433 25.590240 32.052747 40.250911
2024-12-29 7.460847 10.774137 15.066097 20.951473 28.717963 38.512546 51.678558
2025-01-05 5.994881 9.450744 14.249850 21.254345 31.041717 44.032932 62.339525
2025-01-12 4.860373 8.306811 13.405143 21.271961 32.828489 48.858883 72.371158
2025-01-19 4.016836 7.400614 12.705454 21.312245 34.530431 53.586607 82.521729
2025-01-26 3.675844 7.213094 13.032324 22.869185 38.527727 61.806352 98.131475
2025-02-02 3.287012 6.861270 13.022846 23.855729 41.694267 68.987410 112.670044
2025-02-09 2.948381 6.529440 12.982425 24.752417 44.751433 76.166960 127.618969
2025-02-16 2.531289 5.965836 12.447218 24.724645 46.262187 81.005106 139.233085
2025-02-23 2.106155 5.298642 11.618703 24.063186 46.610415 83.963920 148.019503
2025-03-02 1.722728 4.636587 10.694450 23.097888 46.306645 85.781672 155.015351
2025-03-09 1.493020 4.278966 10.337946 23.192278 47.952015 91.065117 168.200366
2025-03-16 1.257000 3.854403 9.780679 22.831382 48.738036 94.952517 179.339272
2025-03-23 1.164515 3.767490 9.934194 23.913368 52.313261 103.919053 199.618508
2025-03-30 1.036340 3.556098 9.774886 24.318288 54.603535 110.721993 216.499684
2025-04-06 0.903487 3.298445 9.466507 24.361931 56.172865 116.299076 231.509078
2025-04-13 0.789776 3.066560 9.181154 24.415890 57.752656 121.970681 246.962214
2025-04-20 0.771890 3.125447 9.627307 26.168535 62.953019 134.705586 275.804999
2025-04-27 0.724060 3.076876 9.789908 27.277354 66.879812 145.222079 301.059924
2025-05-04 0.675570 3.014178 9.905541 28.283914 70.656677 155.641876 326.601422
2025-05-11 0.593214 2.810485 9.606670 28.252933 72.178329 161.738481 344.320955
2025-05-18 0.498659 2.531703 9.048920 27.510863 72.060561 164.568090 355.961233